FCS Playoffs/Celebration Bowl Preview
Preview of the FCS quarterfinals & HBCU National Championship
Last week, I put out a preview for of each game for championship weekend, and I got a lot of positive feedback, so I think game previews are going to be a thing moving forward for CFB: Inside the Numbers. Yes, the Army-Navy game is this weekend. But that game deserves a standalone article, especially this year, so I will be putting that out later today. Look, a lot of people don’t follow the FCS, and I get it, none of the major networks ever give the FCS any real coverage. But now more than ever, in the era of NIL and the transfer portal, fans should be watching FCS games and especially the FCS playoffs if they want to get an idea of what player they may want their team to sign out of the transfer portal. On top of that, the FCS playoffs are STACKED, as each quarterfinal game is a top 10 matchup. Rest assured, we will see some serious fireworks this weekend. With that said, lets get started.
#8 Idaho at #1 Montana State - Bobcat Stadium
This one is a rematch from week 7, in which the #1 ranked Montana State Bobcats absolutely obliterated the Idaho Vandals in Bozeman. Once again, Montana State hosts the Vandals, this time with a trip to the FCS semifinals on the line. Montana State has been an absolute juggernaut this season, going 13-0 , including a win over FBS squad New Mexico. Funnily enough, that 4 point victory was only the 2nd smallest margin of victory for the Bobcats this season. The Bobcats continue to win big, winning their games by an average of 24.2 points this season. The Idaho Vandals are no joke either. Their 3 losses on the season coming to Oregon, UC Davis, and Montana State. This is a tough, scrappy team, and if this game were taking place at the Kibbie Dome, I wouldn’t hesitate to pick Idaho to pull off the upset. But on the road in Bozeman against this Montana State team? The Vandals have had an incredible season, and one of the best in recent years, but this Bobcat team is just too good. I expect the Vandals to keep it close, but I think the Bobcats pull away late.
Friday - 12/13 - 9pm EST - ESPN
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#6 Incarnate Word at #2 South Dakota State - Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium
Folks, I’m going to be completely straightforward with you. This game shouldn’t be close. The SDSU Jackrabbits, led by QB Mark Gronowski, 1k rusher Amar Johnson, and 1k receiver Griffin Wilde, only have 2 losses on the season. One of them was a 13-9 upset on the road at arch rival North Dakota State. The other? Oklahoma State. Not only did the Jackrabbits dominate all season long, aside from the one aberration, they also (technically) beat an FBS team, as Missouri State makes the jump to FBS next season. If that isn’t enough to convince you, the Jacks have 3 wins over FCS playoff teams, more than any other team, except Montana State. The Incarnate Word Cardinals have had yet another phenomenal season, but were blown out by the Jackrabbits back in week 2, by a score of 45-24. That’s right, this is another rematch. The only hope for the Cardinals is that Zach Calzada. The Cardinals QB, an FBS transfer, has had an absolutely incredible season, putting up 3,486 yards passing with 34 TDs. If Calzada and the ICU offense can get going, this one could turn into a high powered shootout. However, the Jackrabbit defense is an incredibly stout unit, having only allowed 20 points or more twice all season, with one of those coming against OK State. The other? Incarnate Word. I don’t want to make a pick in this one, but with home field advantage being a major factor here, the edge goes to South Dakota State. No matter the result, this could be the best game of the weekend in the FCS.
Saturday - 12/14 - 12pm EST - ESPN/ESPN+
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#5 UC Davis at #3 South Dakota - The DakotaDome
First, I want to take a second and recognize the home stadium of the South Dakota Coyotes, The DakotaDome. What an incredible name, eh? The South Dakota Coyotes have put together an impressive season, with their only FCS loss coming by only 3 points on the road in overtime against in-state rival South Dakota State. Traditionally, the 4 Dakota schools are some of the best teams in the entire FCS, so you would think this should be an easy win for the Coyotes, right? Right?!? In the words of the great Coach Lee Corso, not so fast my friend! For the first time since 2018, the UC Davis Aggies have a 10-win season. They also have one of the most high powered offenses in all of Division I football. QB Miles Hastings put up cartoon numbers this season, going 328/467 for 4,148 yards and 35 TDs with only 8 interceptions, with a 70.2 completion percentage and a 166.2 passer rating. Don’t be surprised if Hastings, a senior, ends up on an NFL or FBS roster next season. On top of that, RB Lan Larison has put 1,425 yards and 17 TDs on only 277 carries, good for a very solid 5.1 YPC. As good as the Coyotes might be on defense, I just don’t think they can tame the high octane offense of UC Davis. Not to mention, the Aggies are also the highest ranked Aggies in all of college football, shoutout to the Sickos Committee. The upset-minded Aggies get the win here, and move on to the semifinals. The only downside to this matchup, is that it is stuck in the purgatory that is ESPN+.
Saturday - 12/14 - 3pm EST - ESPN/ESPN+
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#9 Mercer at #4 North Dakota State - Fargodome
This game is a very, very strange matchup. The Mercer Bears have their first 10 win season since leaving the Pioneer League in 2013, with their only FCS loss coming in a shocking road upset against SoCon bottom feeder Samford. Their only other loss this season was to Alabama. Coming into this season, we were told the SoCon was going to be an incredibly tough league on the defensive side of the ball. Whether or not this turned out to be true is up for debate and interpretation. After a rather appalling showing from the offense against Rhode Island, the Bears are going to need to either clamp down on defense, or find another gear on offense if they want to pull off what would be a massive upset against North Dakota State. The Bears only managed 242 yards of total offense against Rhode Island. Had this been a home game for Mercer, I might have a different view of this one, considering the bears are undefeated at home this season. But even that may not be enough. The NDSU Bison have once again turned in a stellar campaign, with their two losses coming by a combined 6 points. The Bison scored late to pull within reach of Colorado, but never got the ball back, and gave up 2 touchdowns in the final 3:22 against South Dakota. As a Western Carolina fan, I would love to see Mercer do the unthinkable here, but the Bison, unsurprisingly, are just too darn good. I’ll be shocked if NDSU doesn’t get the win here.
Saturday - 12/14 - 3:30pm EST - ABC
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AND FINALLY
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The Celebration Bowl- HBCU National Championship
#15 Jackson State at #18 South Carolina State - Mercedes-Benz Stadium
It is time to crown our 2024 HBCU National Champion! The annual penultimate showdown, MEAC vs SWAC, with the National Championship on the line, and bragging rights to go with it. the MEAC has won 6 of the last 8 Celebration Bowls, and the Jackson State Tigers are looking to give the SWAC their first back-to-back wins over the MEAC. But this goes deeper than just MEAC vs SWAC. This is a rematch of the 2021 Celebration Bowl, in which the South Carolina State Bulldogs easily dispatched Deion Sanders and the Jackson State Tigers, 31-10. Now, the Tigers are back with a vengeance. Jackson State comes into the national championship riding a 9 game win streak, including a 41-13 shellacking of Southern in the SWAC title game. But the Bulldogs are no joke either, sporting an equally impressive 8 game winning streak. SC State looks to win their first national championship since 2021, and reach 10 wins on the season. These teams score A LOT of points. SC State averages 35.5 ppg, while Jackson State is averaging 37.1 ppg. The winner? Us, the fans. These two teams are incredibly strong, and can hang with anyone in the FCS. The only reason neither team is in the FCS playoffs is due to the Celebration Bowl tie ins for their respective conferences. Personally, I would LOVE to see both teams in the FCS playoffs because I think they would absolutely wreck shop, even if they didn’t win it all. Folks, sit back, relax, and enjoy this one. It shouldn’t be difficult. There’s just something special about HBCU football, and the Celebration Bowl is the culmination of that great tradition.
Saturday - 12/14 - 12pm EST - ABC
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